Coffee Pricing Trends: July 2025 Insights from the International Coffee Organization
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently released its green coffee report for July 2025, shedding light on a month of significant fluctuations in coffee prices and market dynamics. Notably, prices dropped by 11.8% from June 2025 amidst the backdrop of global economic uncertainty, particularly influenced by new U.S. import tariff announcements. However, the current prices remain above those recorded for the same period last year, providing a glimmer of hope in an otherwise turbulent market.
Price Dynamics in Coffee Markets
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 259.31 US cents/lb in July 2025, marking a decline from June’s figures, but still representing a 9.6% increase compared to July 2024. Throughout July, the I-CIP’s values oscillated between 252.46 and 269.57 US cents/lb, illustrating a downward trajectory influenced by various fundamental factors.
In particular, the decline was pronounced for specific coffee types:
- Colombian Milds averaged 322.37 US cents/lb, down 10.5% from the previous month.
- Brazilian Naturals saw a drop of 12.3%, averaging 297.04 US cents/lb.
- The most significant retraction occurred in Robusta prices, which fell 14.8%, reaching 167.19 US cents/lb.
These shifts highlight how market valuations are often swayed by broader economic conditions and localized production effects.
Supply and Demand Factors
The supply-demand scenario showed signs of improvement, with the coffee year 2024/25 projected to be in surplus. Some crucial elements affected this balance:
- Brazil’s Harvest Performance: Brazil completed 84% of its harvest by July 23, 2025, an improvement from 81% the previous year. This completion rate played a vital role in rebalancing supply.
- Global Economic Impact: Proposed U.S. tariffs created an atmosphere of uncertainty, with potential to reduce global GDP by 1.1% by 2030, as estimated by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Stock Increases: The London market saw Robusta coffee stocks rise by 35.8% to 1.18 million bags, the highest level since mid-2023. Despite this surplus, it may not be sufficient to rebuild stock levels across key international markets.
As these trends unfold, the Colombian Milds/Other Milds differential narrowed slightly, while the Colombian Milds/Brazilian Naturals differential widened to 25.32 US cents/lb, indicating shifting preferences and price sensitivities.
Volatility and Market Trends
Market volatility also played a role, with the overall intra-day volatility of the I-CIP averaging 10.2%, a slight decrease compared to the prior month. Notably, the Robustas experienced heightened volatility, increasing to 13.1%. This trend hints at a market adjusting to new realities shaped by both demand fluctuations and supply uncertainties.
Export Dynamics in Green Coffee
As for green coffee exports, June 2025 saw a total of 10.23 million bags, a 3.3% increase from June 2024. However, the year-to-date volume remains down 3.0%, reflecting overall market challenges. A breakdown of exports by coffee groups reveals interesting insights:
- Colombian Milds exports rose 9.0% to approximately 1.1 million bags.
- Robusta exports surged 16.9% to 3.92 million bags, largely driven by significant increases from Vietnam, which saw a 55.4% rise.
In contrast, Brazilian Naturals exports fell 21.3%, reaching 2.51 million bags—the lowest for June since 2011. This downturn highlights the cyclical nature of Brazil’s Arabica coffee production, revealing complexities in global supply chains.
Regional Exports Overview
Examining regional performances, exports from Asia and Oceania surged by 38.6%, buoyed by Vietnamese growth. Conversely, South America saw a decline of 18.1%, continuing an eight-month streak of negative growth. Brazil’s contribution to this downturn is significant, accounting for a substantial drop in their export of all forms of coffee.
By regions:
- Africa performed admirably, with a 28.1% increase, driven by strong performances from Uganda and Ethiopia.
- Meanwhile, Mexico and Central America saw an 18.0% rise, supported by Nicaragua’s recovery from poor harvests.
Coffee Forms and Soluble Coffee Growth
In terms of coffee forms, the total exports of soluble coffee rose dramatically by 47.2%, indicating a growing consumer preference for this variety. This segment’s share of total exports increased to 11.5%, while roasted bean exports also climbed 58.1%, indicative of shifting market dynamics and consumer trends.
The comprehensive findings from the ICO notably outline the coffee market’s resilience amid challenges. With a mix of improved supply conditions and fluctuating prices, stakeholders will remain keenly focused on upcoming harvests and global economic indicators.
For further insights and detailed analysis, the complete ICO report can be accessed at ICO.org.
