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Experts Skeptical That China Will End Bitcoin Mining Ban Despite Increased Energy Supply and Recent Upticks

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A Resurgence in Bitcoin Mining in China: Trends and Implications

The Current Landscape of Bitcoin Mining in China

In recent months, there has been a notable uptick in bitcoin mining activity within China, leading to discussions about potentially easing the stringent regulations that have governed the industry since 2021. This resurgence is particularly striking as China had previously taken a hard stance against cryptocurrency mining, enforcing a nationwide ban aimed at curbing financial risks and reducing energy consumption.

According to the latest data from Hashrate Index, China’s share of the global bitcoin mining market by hash rate has incrementally increased from approximately 13.75% in early 2025 to 14.06% in the current quarter, positioning it as the third largest bitcoin mining nation, trailing behind the United States and Russia. This change comes despite the drastic fall of China’s hash rate to zero in July 2021, shortly after the government declared its intentions to crack down on bitcoin mining activities.

Understanding Hash Rate and Its Significance

Hash rate refers to the computational power used to validate transactions and mine new bitcoin. Essentially, a higher hash rate means that the network can process transactions more quickly and securely. China’s previous ban had forced many miners to halt operations, leading to significant shifts in the global bitcoin mining landscape. However, figures suggest that by September 2021, China’s mining share had already rebounded to a remarkable 22.29%, illustrating the resilience of its mining networks.

Calls for Policy Adjustments

The recent increase in bitcoin mining has ignited calls from various scholars and economists, including Guojun He from the University of Hong Kong, urging the Chinese government to reconsider its stance. In a March article, He posited that utilizing bitcoin mining could help manage China’s excess renewable energy, particularly during periods of oversupply. For context, he highlighted that certain regions in China have seen solar energy oversupply rates exceeding 10%, while wind energy surpluses have reached 15%.

By integrating crypto mining into its power grid systems, He argued, China could stabilize its grid operations and create economic opportunities by harnessing excess energy, rather than letting it go to waste.

Diverging Opinions Within the Industry

Debates around the mining activities have generated varied perspectives. Fears persist that if China maintains its ban, related businesses may continue to migrate to more crypto-friendly environments like the United States, where legislation has become increasingly supportive of digital assets. Former HKUST vice-president Wang Yang remarked that the outright prohibition of mining could lead to strategic disadvantages in the competitive global landscape shaped by nations like the US.

Interestingly, speculation has emerged that local governments might be encouraging state-owned enterprises to engage in bitcoin mining as a pragmatic approach to utilizing surplus energy and generating additional revenue streams.

The Strategic Focus of the Chinese Government

Despite some local enthusiasm for crypto mining, experts remain skeptical about a significant policy shift from the central government. David Zhang, a macroeconomic analyst, pointed out that China’s escalating commitment to industries like artificial intelligence and high-performance computing could overshadow any advantages derived from cryptocurrency mining. This aligns with Beijing’s goal of prioritizing sectors that promise greater economic returns over energy-intensive activities like bitcoin mining.

Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, has articulated cautions regarding the risks associated with digital assets. Legal experts, such as Yang Liu from DeHeng Law Offices, concur that any positive reinforcement for mining activities is unlikely in the near term, maintaining that the government’s cautious stance is centered around broader economic stability and governance.

The Future of Bitcoin Mining in China

The evolving narrative around bitcoin mining in China reflects not only shifting market dynamics but also deeper considerations of economic strategy and sustainability. While there are pockets of proponents advocating for more leniency, the overarching sentiment suggests a continued reluctance from the central government to endorse or participate in the energy-intensive mining landscape, aspiring instead towards more innovative and efficient avenues of growth.

In a rapidly transforming global crypto landscape, the story of Chinese bitcoin mining remains unavoidably intertwined with the nation’s strategic objectives and energy policies—making it a topic worth watching as it unfolds.

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