Gold Price Update: Today, gold and silver prices experienced a decline in the domestic futures market early Tuesday morning, November 4th. Following a wave of profit booking by investors, the rates adjusted downward, mainly influenced by a strengthening US dollar and diminishing expectations of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year. Specifically, the MCX Gold December futures were trading 0.42% lower at ₹1,20,894 per 10 grams around 9:10 AM. Concurrently, MCX Silver December contracts were down 0.48% at ₹1,47,050 per kg at the same time.
The dollar index climbed about 0.20%, reaching a three-month high at 100.05. The increase in value indicates a shift in market sentiment, as investor confidence regarding a potential rate cut from the US Fed dwindles.
Gold is primarily traded in US dollars, meaning changes in the dollar’s value directly impact gold prices globally. A stronger dollar can make gold more expensive in other currencies, thus impacting demand as buyers may hesitate to purchase the metal at higher prices.
Weakened expectations surrounding another rate cut in December are bolstering the US dollar. In October, the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points—the second cut this year. However, Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the possibility of another cut happening this year is minimal, leading to a reevaluation of market expectations.
According to Reuters, the sentiment shifts have been reflected in the CME’s FedWatch Tool. Market participants currently estimate a 65% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, a noticeable drop from over 90% prior to Powell’s statement regarding future monetary policy.
As the market now gears up for key upcoming data, attention will be focused on the ADP US employment figures due Wednesday, followed closely by jobless claims released on Thursday. These economic indicators are crucial in shaping expectations for future monetary policy adjustments.
Key Levels to Watch for Gold
Investment strategies can be informed by the insights of analysts. Manoj Kumar Jain, from Prithvifinmart Commodity Research, notes that gold has established support at $3,984 and $3,955, while resistance levels appear at $4,040 and $4,074 per troy ounce. For silver, the support is noted at $47.70 and $47.30, with resistance at $48.40 and $48.84 per troy ounce today.
Breaking it down to the Indian market, MCX Gold has support at ₹1,20,800 and ₹1,20,120, while resistance can be seen at ₹1,22,000 and ₹1,22,750. Silver mirrors a similar pattern, with support at ₹1,46,600 and ₹1,45,800, and resistance at ₹1,48,800 and ₹1,49,500.
Investment advice from Jain centers around buying gold during dips, recommending entry around ₹1,20,650 with a stop loss set at ₹1,19,900. The target for this strategy could reach ₹1,22,000.
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, predicts that MCX Gold December futures may slide to ₹1,20,500 per 10 grams, with resistance observed around ₹1,21,400.
Looking at international trends, Rahul Kalantri, VP of commodities at Mehta Equities, states that gold has support at $3,950 and $3,920, while resistance lies at $4,035 and $4,065. For silver, key support areas are at $47.20 and $47.85, with resistance at $48.30 and $48.70.
In the Indian context, gold support levels are at ₹1,20,870 and ₹1,20,480, while resistance readings sit at ₹1,21,890 and ₹1,22,300. Silver’s support is reported at ₹1,46,450 and ₹1,45,750, with resistance at ₹1,48,340 and ₹1,49,280, according to Kalantri.
Read all market-related news here
Read more stories by Nishant Kumar
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
