Silver and Gold: The Rally of November 2025
On November 29, 2025, the world of precious metals witnessed a historic moment as silver soared past $56 per ounce, while gold maintained a strong footing priced over $4,200. This remarkable jump signifies one of the most significant surges the metals market has seen in decades, fueled by a blend of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, critical supply constraints, and a surge in demand driven both by investors seeking safe-haven assets and the green energy sector.
1. Silver’s Explosive Breakout Sets New Benchmark
Silver prices skyrocketed to approximately $56.70 per ounce on that fateful day, marking a fresh all-time high with an impressive single-session gain of around 6%. The month of November saw the white metal climbing mid-teen percentage gains, with some trackers indicating increases between 16% to 17%.
The narrative is astonishing: over the mere span of 11 months, silver has nearly doubled in value, showcasing year-to-date gains of 94%, vastly eclipsing gold’s commendable 60% rise. In the world’s largest silver consumer, India, prices surged to about ₹170,000 per kilogram in mid-October, reflecting an 85% hike since the beginning of the year. A broad historical perspective reveals that silver has surged approximately 163% since October 2023, when it was trading around $20.70 per ounce, transforming it from a mere footnote in many portfolios into the standout star of precious metals.
2. Gold Maintains Steady Strength Above $4,200
As silver grabbed the spotlight, gold continued its impressive performance, trading around $4,210 per ounce on November 29, hitting a two-week high and marking the fourth consecutive day of gains. Gold’s upward trajectory included a weekly increase surpassing 3.5% and monthly gains topping 5%.
Previously, gold achieved a record high of around $4,381 per ounce on October 20 and has remained comfortably above the critical $4,000 threshold. The metal is poised for its best annual performance since the late 1970s, with gains nearing 59% to 60%. However, the rising popularity of silver has disrupted the traditional dynamics, as this time gold has appreciated by about 59%, while silver’s phenomenal ascent has outpaced it with roughly 87% growth.
3. Federal Reserve Policy Shift Fuels Investor Confidence
The catalyst behind this remarkable surge can be traced to changing expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy. Multiple data points and official statements led markets to anticipate another interest rate cut in December, with traders pricing in an 85% to 87% probability, a considerable increase from the previous week’s estimates of 30% to 50%.
Softer retail sales data and stable producer prices have strengthened arguments for further easing without reigniting inflationary concerns. Prominent Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, have adopted notably dovish stances, emphasizing weaker labor market conditions and economic deceleration.
Lower interest rates inherently reduce the opportunity cost associated with holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver, typically applying downward pressure on the dollar and bond yields. Historically, such an environment nurtures favorable conditions for precious metals.
4. Technical Disruption Amplifies Metal Moves
An unexpected technical disruption further intensified the rally. On November 28, a trading halt on CME Group’s Globex platform delayed trading on significant gold and silver futures contracts. Upon resumption, pent-up orders combined with renewed market focus amplified the momentum, propelling gold for February delivery to a close about 1.3% higher at $4,254.90 per ounce, while silver surged to its new record near $56.80.
This incident served as a vivid reminder that liquidity and technical issues can drastically magnify price movements in markets primed by macroeconomic changes.
5. India’s Demand Surge Meets Global Supply Crunch
Shifting focus to structural factors, a veritable storm has emerged for silver supply and demand. India typically consumes around 4,000 metric tons of silver annually, primarily for jewelry and traditional ornaments. Following the post-monsoon and harvest season, rural families, flush with cash, often prefer purchasing precious metals over depositing funds in banks.
This seasonal demand surge coincided with Diwali celebrations and a global supply squeeze, further propelling prices. Analysts characterize gold and ever more so silver as primary destinations for post-harvest savings in rural India.
6. London Vaults Show Dramatic Inventory Decline
Examining supply side data from the London Bullion Market Association reveals significant declines in silver inventories. Holdings in London vaults have fallen by about one-third over the past few years, dropping from around 31,000 metric tons in mid-2022 to approximately 22,000 tons by March 2025, reaching their lowest levels in years.
October saw lease rates rocket to the equivalent of 200% per annum on an overnight basis, highlighting an extreme shortage. Traders reported scenarios requiring air freight rather than standard shipping to satisfy urgent delivery needs, signifying a severe depletion in flexible inventories.
Compounding these issues, Chinese silver exports rose to a record high above 660 tonnes in October while domestic inventories plummeted to decade lows. Additionally, the United States has classified silver as a critical mineral, reflecting long-term availability concerns and strategic importance.
7. Green Energy and Technology Reshape Demand Landscape
Beyond immediate monetary factors, industrial applications are structurally altering silver’s long-term demand outlook. Global industrial demand soared to approximately 689 million ounces in 2024, up from 644 million the prior year. Notably, solar panel production alone absorbed around 244 million ounces, an increase from 192 million the year prior and double the figures from 2020.
The International Energy Agency predicts about 4,000 gigawatts of new solar capacity from 2024 to 2030, promising to add approximately 150 million ounces of annual silver demand solely from solar applications by 2030, equivalent to around 13% of total physical demand in 2024.
Electric vehicle production is another layer to this demand story. Current vehicle designs utilize between 25 to 50 grams of silver, but emerging solid-state battery technologies could require as much as one kilogram of silver per car if they achieve widespread adoption. This, combined with demands from data center and AI infrastructure, ensures sustained structural demand for silver.
8. Supply Constraints Compound the Equation
Despite rising prices, silver mine production has been on a downward trajectory for nearly a decade, particularly across Latin America. The market deficit ballooned to more than 500 million ounces in 2024, a significant increase from the previous year’s modest deficit. Much of silver production results from mining other metals such as copper, lead, zinc, and gold, complicating responsiveness to price signals for increased production.
9. Price Ratio Suggests Continued Upside Potential
The gold-silver ratio, which measures how many ounces of silver equate to one ounce of gold, was above 100 in January 2025. By late November, with gold around $4,207 and silver near $55, the ratio fell to just under 77. Historically, this long-term average hovers closer to 70, implying room for further upside for silver if gold prices stabilize or rise.
Historical parallels show silver’s propensity to leverage gold bull markets. During the bull market from 2008 to 2011, silver surged approximately 431%, overshadowing gold’s 168% increase in the same timeframe. This trend reinforces silver’s reputation as a leveraged play on precious metals sentiment.
10. Analysts Project Continued Strength with Caution
Deutsche Bank recently increased its 2026 gold price target to $4,450 per ounce, from a previous $4,000, anticipating broad trading in a range of $3,950 to $4,950 next year, driven by ongoing central bank buying, inflows into exchange-traded funds, and tight physical markets across multiple precious metals.
Strategists predict that silver will remain in deficit for a fifth consecutive year through 2025, with tightness in leasing rates and physical supply suggesting minimal slack moving forward. Technical analysts note that recent charts have turned decisively bullish, attracting traders keen on following market trends.
However, risks linger. The smaller market size of silver means even minor fluctuations can lead to substantial price shifts. If the Federal Reserve provides less easing than market participants currently expect, the consequent rise in real yields and dollar strength could pressurize metals. Furthermore, leveraged futures positions may result in increased volatility, amplifying both price rallies and corrections.
The precious metals rally leading into December 2025 reflects genuine shifts in foundational supply and demand dynamics complimented by supportive monetary policies. Whether this momentum can sustain itself will depend on Federal Reserve decisions, industrial demand patterns, and overall appetite from investors for alternatives to traditional financial assets.
